Some corners are cautiously predicting the possibility of escalation. After the deployment of Israeli ground troops, if the sacrifice of Palestinian civilians increases, there is a high possibility that Hezbollah, a Lebanese armed group, will participate in the war. On this day, Hezbollah stated, "When the time comes, we will confront Israel," hinting at the possibility of joining the war.

Nouriel Roubini, a professor at New York University known as 'Dr. Doom,' evaluated that "the market is underestimating the conflict risk in the Middle East too much." In an interview with Bloomberg, he said, "The conflict is still in a restrained state, so the impact on the market is small, but if Israel occupies the Gaza Strip, the situation will worsen." He predicted that "if Iran and Lebanon intervene, the Gulf's oil supply will be cut off, and oil prices will surge." He added that the surge in oil prices could stimulate inflation, and as a result, the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates further or maintain high interest rates, leading to a 'stagflation' where the economy stagnates.

BNY Mellon also expressed a similar opinion. BNY Mellon pointed out that "the risk of inflation rising due to the increase in oil prices and defense spending has increased, but this has not yet been reflected in the price." They predicted, "Considering Israel's budget and GDP, it has the capacity to continue the war for more than 8 weeks." "If the war becomes protracted, the possibility of disruption in oil supply increases, and accordingly, the demand for safe assets such as gold and dollars will increase."

Reporter Alexander Lee alexanderlee_24@newsyn.co.kr