​By Alexander Lee  

Then-candidate Joe Biden takes off his mask before speaking in Wilmington, Del., on the day after the November election. 

The divergence between red and blue states seemed to take root around the time the Food and Drug Administration paused the distribution of Johnson & Johnson vaccines. This was also when states began reaching saturation among their elderly vaccine recipients, suggesting that multiple factors contributed to this shift. Surprisingly, even the lifting of mask recommendations, which wasn't a strict mandate but was done for brevity's sake, did not significantly boost vaccination rates.

A closer examination of vaccine distribution nationally and in red and blue states during the Johnson & Johnson vaccine pause and the lifting of mask recommendations reveals distinct patterns. Using the number of vaccine doses distributed two weeks before the pause as a baseline, vaccinations increased in all three groups during the week leading up to the pause. However, during the pause, red-state vaccinations dipped below the baseline while blue-state vaccinations remained above it. After the pause was lifted, both red and blue states, along with the national average, experienced declines.

Analyzing these changes on a state-by-state basis reveals subtler shifts. In a few states, such as Alaska, Rhode Island, Vermont, and Texas, vaccinations increased in one of the two weeks after the mask recommendation was lifted. Yet, in most states, excluding some anomalous data from New Hampshire, lifting the recommendation didn't seem to have a substantial impact.

Looking at vaccination trends relative to the Johnson & Johnson pause, most states witnessed steady or increasing vaccination rates before the pause, followed by a decline during the pause. In red states, this decline often exceeded that of blue states.

It becomes evident that lifting the mask recommendation may not have effectively encouraged vaccinations. Those diligently wearing masks were more likely to perceive the pandemic as a significant threat and had likely already received their vaccines. Conversely, those who dismissed the virus as a non-threat were unlikely to be swayed by mask recommendations or vaccination efforts. This aligns with poll data, showing that those most concerned about the virus were predominantly Democrats, and they were also more eager to get vaccinated.

This poses a similar challenge for the potential reintroduction of mask-wearing rules. Such a move might not be popular and could face resistance from lawmakers representing vaccine-hesitant constituencies. Those who are indifferent to the virus's risk are unlikely to support such a measure, and those who would approve of stricter mask rules have probably already been vaccinated.

Partisanship is not the sole reason behind the vaccination divide in America, but it undoubtedly plays a role that intersects with the political landscape. For President Biden, the hope now lies in halting the surge in cases and mitigating potential deaths through the effectiveness of vaccines. Beyond this, navigating the complex decisions ahead will be no easy feat.

Reporter Alexander Lee alexanderlee_24@newsyn.co.kr