By Alexander Lee
 

Photo from [CBS News]




In these uncertain economic times, with inflation and recession making headlines, it's important to gain insights from those who understand the complexities of our financial world.
Former CEO and current senior chairman of Goldman Sachs, Lloyd Blankfein, acknowledges the economy is running hot. 'Everybody is asking, 'Where is the economy going?'' he said. 'It's hard to predict the future, but right now it's hard to predict the present.'
Economics is all about the big picture, but it also boils down to the individual household level. 'Even if you're doing well, hearing 'recession' and 'inflation at a 40-year high' can be daunting,' says Michelle Singletary, personal finance columnist for The Washington Post.
The Federal Reserve is taking action, having announced another interest rate hike in a bid to tackle the soaring inflation, which stood at 9.1% year-on-year in June. Meanwhile, the U.S. government reported a second consecutive quarterly fall in gross domestic product, a sign that we could be heading for a recession.
'There's a not insubstantial chance that we have a recession,' Blankfein notes, adding that while some people think we're already in one, a soft landing – where the economy cools without triggering a severe recession – is very unlikely.
'A soft landing is what the Federal Reserve is aiming for by raising rates, but history shows that it's a difficult feat to achieve,' Blankfein says. 'In most recessions, jobs are lost, and companies shrink. However, our financial system is in good shape, and there are more jobs than there are people to fill them.'
The pandemic has certainly played a role in our current economic situation. 'It was like we shut off a valve. It wasn't the natural order of things,' says Blankfein. Despite the unemployment rate being at a nearly 50-year low, it's believed that 58% of Americans are living paycheck to paycheck.
'It's heartbreaking, and there's no easy solution. Spending wisely and saving wherever possible are key,' Singletary advises. She lives this advice, with her adult children living at home to save money.
If you're in a comfortable financial position, Singletary suggests continuing to spend and be generous, as pulling back could trigger an even deeper recession. 'Don't panic, but also, it's okay to feel nervous,' she adds.
Both Singletary and Blankfein urge a macro, long-term view. 'The U.S. economy has always recovered, and our system is resilient,' Blankfein assures. Singletary's message, recession or not, is clear: 'Avoid debt. Living the American dream on borrowed money leaves people vulnerable when the economy takes a downturn.'
 
Reporter Alexander Lee alexanderlee_24@newsyn.co.kr